«I’m looking into your eyes, and I don’t think you have a soul», sa Joe Biden til Vladimir Putin på visit i Kreml i 2011. Hjemme i USA fortalte Biden at Putin så på han, smilte og svarte: «We understand one another.»
Biden-administrasjonens håndtering av Russland vil således bli en utenrikspolitisk utfordring ettersom Putin har fått lovfestet rett til å bekle sin stilling i hele Bidens mulige periode som amerikanernes president. Det er vel ikke positivt for Biden at denne angivelig har en ivrig republikansk tilhenger i Kreml, dersom det skal legges til grunn at Russland spilte en rolle for å hjelpe Donald Trump til å vinne valget i 2016.
Grei og pålitelig

Presidentene Putin og Bush
Det siteres imidlertid fra republikaneren, president George W. Bush, sin beretning om sitt første møte med Putin i 2000, den gang en nyetablert, sjenert, russisk leder som søkte anerkjennelse av vestlige, politiske tungvektere, «I looked the man in the eye. I found him very straightforward and trustworthy – I was able to get a sense of his soul.»
Bader av seg sine synder i isvann

Putin bader
Bidens utfordring blir derfor i første rekke å foreta sjelevandring for få bestemt om den tilsynelatende konservative, ortodokse kristne russeren, som hver vinter rituelt bader av seg sine synder i isvann i Moskvas og Sibirs vinterkulde, stående i kø og vente på tur sammen med sin ivrige tilhørende menighet, etter at han har strippet ut av sin varme ulveskinnspels.
Trumps-administrasjonens Russlands-politikk

Donald Trump og Vladimir Putin
Det påstås at Trump-administrasjonen skal ha bedrevet ettergivende politikk overfor Russland, hvilket visstnok forstås av millioner av amerikanere som ironisk. Dette ettersom Washingtons politikk i Trump-administrasjonens regjeringstid derimot av enkelte vil kunne påstås at det faktisk i stedet har skjedd det motsatte. Fronten mot Russland har heller blitt skjerpet. En rekke tiltak fra amerikansk side i de fire siste årene har blitt lagt i vektskålen for denne påstand. Det kan eksempelvis nevnes at NATOs medlemskap har blitt utvidet med to land, Montenegro i 2017 og Nord-Makedonia i 2020. Russlands produksjon av nye mellomdistanseraketter ble møtt av Trumps tilbaketrekking fra president Ronald Reagans og generalsekretær Mikhail Gorbatsjovs INF-traktat fra 1987, da Russland presenterte nye sådanne raketter. Både antall og størrelse på NATOs forsvarsøvelser oppunder Russlands grenser i den sovjetiske føderasjonens tidligere medlemmer, har økt både i antall og størrelse. Amerikansk våpensalg til sovjetføderasjonen Ukraina, har ytterligere bekreftet denne aktiviteten.
Monroe-doktrinen

President James Monroe
Russlands politikk i Venezuela representerer en direkte utfordring mot Monroe-doktrinen. Denne doktrinen ble framsatt av president James Monroe 1817–1825 og indikerer at Nord- og Syd-Amerika skal være fri for ytre – primært europeisk, politisk innblanding. Nord- og Syd-Amerika er i USAs interessesfære. Om enn USAs innsats hittil har vært for beskjeden for å hjelpe eksempelvis Venezuela i akutt nød, har i alle fall Trump-administrasjonens bistand til det nødstilte landet nærmest kun bestått av å godkjenne opposisjonslederen Juan Guaidó som Venezuelas interim president. Dette med umiddelbar oppfølge fra både Brazil, Canada, Colombia og Peru. Dette var et forsøk på å ivareta doktrinens intensjon idet president Nicolás Maduro kontaktet Russland. Godkjenningen av Guaidó som president for om mulig å hindre russernes oppbakking av den tidligere valgte, mislykkede presidenten Nicolás Maduro, i hensikt å få et fotfeste på det amerikanske kontinentet. Maduro har naturligvis søkt hjelp der denne kunne få dette.
Det amerikanske kontinentet

Presidentene Nicolás Maduro og Juan Guaidó
Moskvas eskalerende rolle på den vestlige halvkule utgjør en legitim, amerikansk bekymring. Kreml gir stor økonomisk støtte til Nicolás Maduros sterkt anti-amerikanske regjering i Venezuela, herunder også betydelig militær støtte. Russland sendte i fjor rundt 200 militærpersonell for å hjelpe Caracas med å etablere et fungerende luftvernsystem. Dessuten opererer flere hundre russiske soldater i landet med å trene og bistå Maduros sikkerhetsstyrker. Venezuelas problematikk kommer i tillegg til det allerede pågående Nicaragua-problemet hvor russerne økende har styrket de økonomiske og militære bånd til landets sosialistiske regjering, for ikke å forglemme de 60 år gamle forholdene på Cuba. Bidens administrasjon må følge opp disse forhold for å gjøre russerne ettertrykkelig oppmerksomme på at Monroe-doktrinen fortsatt står ved lag i amerikansk politikk. Akkurat som USA insisterer på at Russland skal respekterte Monroe-doktrinen, burde kanskje amerikanske ledere, hvilke i snart ett århundre helt synes å ha tilsidesatt å gi russerne samme respekt for disses innflytelsessfære i Øst-Europa, som amerikanerne krever at russerne skal gi dem. I dagens situasjon er dette imidlertid helt urealistisk.

President Donald Trump
Det bør vel ellers nevnes at Donald Trump også har lagt ned en betydelig innsats for å få fjernet det russiskorienterte regimet i Syria. Noen vil nok hevde at Trump gjorde alt dette under press fra Kongressen, men påstander om at Trump skal ha brukte sine fire år uten å ta hensyn til eventuelt å ha en upålitelig, potensiell angriper i Kreml, kan likevel ha hatt et grep om den kollektive, amerikanske psyken, som kan virket negativet for Trump under presidentvalget.
Nødvendig politisk korrigering

Putin i Kreml
Biden-administrasjonen vil ha en fordel av Bidens tilnærming til Putin som Biden betegner som den sjelløse skapningen i Kreml. Putin kan imidlertid opptre som eneveldig 1800-talls Tsar. Det er for Biden nødvendig å innrømme behovet for en tilnærming til denne. Dette uansett om en slik politisk korrigering kan insultere partifellene hjemme i USA. Det vil være lite tjenlig å fortsette et fiendtlig holdning til en aktør som ikke bare opererer i Øst-Europa, men også i Midtøsten, Sentral-Asia og til og med på det amerikanske kontinentet. Denne aktøren er dessuten enn så lenge, den eneste som totalt kan endre det fungerende amerikanske samfunnet på et kort øyeblikk, ved å trykke på atomknappen.

Tidligere statsminister Kåre Willoch
Den store uviljen mot et normal forbindelse til Russland, er først og fremst relatert til Russlands anneksjon av Krimhalvøya fra Ukraina, hvilket nærmest har isolert Russland fra den frie verden og blitt spire til en ny kald krig mellom øst og vest. For noen år siden uttalte Norges tidligere statsminister Kåre Willoch seg om Vestens stadig forverrede forhold til Russland. Willoch mente åpenbart at Vesten burde akseptere at Krim forble russisk, slik som halvøya i nyere historisk tid uomtvistelig har vært. Det ble gjort en ren lapsus ved oppløsning av Sovjetunionen, som verden må akseptere og akseptere opprettet.
Russland i allianse med Kina

Felles kinesisk og russisk militærøvelse
Hvordan ville verden ha sett ut i dag dersom Willochs og hans meningsfellers sunne fornuft hadde blitt etterkommet? Det henvises til artikkel i www.em24.uk – «Territorial integritet – Russland og Krim» link: https://www.em24.uk/territorial-integritet-russland-og-krim/
Krim ble i 1954 overført fra den russiske sovjetrepublikk til den ukrainske, etter at ukraineren Nikita Khrushchev hadde overtatt som førstesekretær i kommunistpartiet i Sovjetunionen. Krim ble deretter følgelig gitt til den selvstendige staten Ukraina, som ble opprettet etter Sovjetunionens oppløsning i 1991. I februar-mars 2014 tok russiske styrker kontroll over dennes tidligere Krim-territorium. Etter avstemning den 16. mars samme år, gikk befolkningen inn for at Krim skulle forlate Ukraina. Territoriet ble deretter tatt opp i Den russiske føderasjon som en autonom stat. Denne avstemningen eller Russlands innlemmelse av Krim, er imidlertid ikke anerkjent av hele verdenssamfunnet.

Kinesiske og russiske militærledere.
Biden som tidligere visepresidentledet i Obama-administrasjonen, vil nok som president betrakte det som et nederlag i ettertid eventuelt å anerkjenne Krims eget valg som en autonom republikk av Russland. Dette selv om erkjennelsen gir uforutsigbar positiv effekt på verdens og ikke minst USAs framtidige utvikling spesielt hensyntatt at Russland er nærmest å betrakte som en alliert med verdens mest folkerike og muligens allerede rikeste stat, Folkerepublikken Kina. Russland må derfor følgelig betraktes og håndteres som en stormakt fullt på høyde med USA.
USA bevirker allianse mellom Kina og Russland

Presidentene Xi Jinping og Valdimir Putin
Det vil være utvilsomt totalt ulogisk å fortsette å motarbeide Russland og føre Moskva og Beijing sammen i en de facto-allianse. Dette spesielt på et tidspunkt USAs forhold til Kina helt klart er i ferd med ytterligere å forverres. Samarbeidet mellom Kina og Russland intensiveres. Amerikanerne bør i alle fall ikke oppfordre til denne trenden, men derimot motarbeide den. Den tidligere Nobels fredsprisvinner i 1973, Henry Kissinger, som var USAs utenriksminister fra 1973 til 1977, mente under den kalde krigen at det måtte være et mål for amerikanerne å ha tettere bånd til Moskva enn denne og Beijing har til hverandre.

Brandenburger Tor, Berlin-muren
En reparasjon av USAs forhold til Russland vil rimeligvis ikke umiddelbart kunne foretas. Det ville bli oppfattet som en underkastelse av Russlands makt, Washingtons handlinger under Trump-administrasjonen har ikke nettopp redusert bilaterale spenninger med Russland. Den avgjørelsen om å utvide NATOs grenser østover til grensene mot den russiske føderasjonen, var direkte i strid med underforståtte løfter da Tysklands gjenforening ble akseptert av Moskva. Herunder også det samlede Tysklands medlemskap i NATO. Vestens militære inngrep på Balkan med ydmykelse av det mangeårige russiskallierte Serbia, stresset også det bilaterale forholdet til Russland, på samme måte som Vesten fjernet Ukrainas valgte, pro-russiske president. Det er ikke urimelig å se anneksjonen av Krimhalvøya som en uttrykkelig respons på Vestens friheter til å endre på de implisitte avtalene.
Hva om NATO utvides med Georgia og Ukraina?

Fra russisk militærparade
En eventuell forestående utvidelse av NATO med Georgia og Ukraina som både George W. Bush og Barack Obama ønsket, vil komme til å virke ytterligere provoserende på russerne. Begge disse landene betraktes rimeligvis av Russland som innenfor dennes sikkerhetssone. Putin var åpenbart for uerfaren til å forhindre at de baltiske republikkene ble innlemmet i NATO i 2004. Det vises til at akkurat som USA insisterer på at Russland skal respekterte Monroe-doktrinen, burde kanskje amerikanske ledere også gi en viss respekt for russisk innflytelsessfære i Øst-Europa. I dag opptrer nok Putin mer besluttsom. Hva kan Russland gjøre om Georgia og Ukraina skulle tiltre NATO? Russland vil selvfølgelig ikke starte en krig. Tilsvarende har vel heller ikke NATO planer om å starte krig mot Russland. Da kan det vel være naturlig å spørre hva er hensikten med å innlemme disse landene i NATO, dersom det ikke er for å provosere russerne? Det er imidlertid ikke urimelig at Russland som mottrekk vil etablere en tett de facto-allianse med kineserne. Verden vil med dette på nytt få en pågående ny kald krig, rimeligvis med et nytt våpenkappløp, som for så vidt allerede pågår.
Hestehandel kan løse fiendtlighet

Byen Sevastopol
Russland utsettes for sanksjoner grunnet Krim. Det er imidlertid like usannsynlig at sanksjoner vil påvirke Russland til å trekke seg tilbake fra Krim og returnere halvøya til Ukraina, som det ville være at Vesten skulle akseptere å løse de baltiske statene fra deltagelse i NATO og stille disse til disposisjon for Russland. Opprettholdelse av sanksjoner mot Russland for å oppfylle det urealistiske kravet, er totalt meningsløst. Russerne vil dessuten, rimeligvis selvfølgelig ikke diskutere retten til å beholde sin strategiske marinebase i Sevastopol, hvorfra Russland allerede i Krimkrigens tid, i 1853-1856, mellom Russlands tsar Nicholas og det Osmanske riket alliert med Storbritannia, Frankrike og Sardinia, grunnet uvilligheten til å la Russland få territorium og makt på det Osmanske rikets bekostning. Ved krigens start sendte tsaren sin Svartehavsflåte nettopp fra Sevastopol og eliminerte Osmanernes flåte ved å innlede benyttelse av eksploderende granater i sine kanoner, hvilket endelig avsluttet trevirkets anvendelse i krigsskip. Sevastopol har umåtelig tradisjon i russisk historie.

Russlands største landingfartøy “Azov” ankret i Sevastopol
Selv om Biden et Co. ikke umiddelbart kan gi formell anerkjennelse av den territoriale endringen med hensyn til Krim, for ikke å tape ansikt, bør imidlertid denne straks oppheve alle innførte sanksjoner mot russerne tilknyttet Krim. Noe annet vil være ulogisk. Dersom Biden-administrasjonen vedtar en slik tilnærming til russerne, kan det gi et rimelig håp om en forbedring av det verserende, giftige forholdet mellom USA og Russland. Det avgjørende er spørsmålet om Biden har tilstrekkelig styrke og visjon til å avvise beroende russerangst, som tilsynelatende har eskalert i løpet av Trump-administrasjonens tid i Washington, mens russerne kontinuerlig har demonstrert sine nyutviklede våpen. Av hensyn til amerikanernes beste er det viktig at Biden tar disse nødvendige, konstruktive beslutninger, uansett hvor upopulære de synes å måtte være på kort sikt.
Features image: Presidentene Joe Biden og Vladimir Putin.
30/11/2020
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